Lagging noticeably behind but a strong third and undisputable force to be reckoned with is Federer. By the time the US Open rolls around, he will be 30 and slamless in his last six outings. Has he won his last slam? He may laugh off the question, but it is a legitimate one. Being just a half step slower and allowing his aggression to wander off for sets at a time has relegated Federer to bridesmaid status, at least for now.

Bringing up the rear but not to be forgotten are Murray and Del Potro. Both have some big flaws but big upsides as well. Murray’s tremendous talent is undisputed, but his passive patches and startlingly bad attitude have kept him from reaching his full potential as a slam champion. Del Potro is a champion already but on the return from a long injury break. His big swings require perfect timing, which requires a lot of good match play. If he has a good summer, watch out for him.

The upcoming Rogers Cup will give us a great indication of who to watch for at the US Open. In six of the last eight years, one of the finalists from the Rogers Cup has been a finalist at the US Open. Agassi was the runner up in ‘05 before his memorable run to the Open Final. Djokovic won the Cup in ’07 before reaching his first slam final a month later. Del Potro was the runner up in ’09 before his surprising run to the title in Flushing Meadows.

WTA Year End #1: Photo Finish or Forgone Conclusion?
If you take a look at the current WTA rankings, The Great Dane Caroline Wozniacki has a staggering lead. She is about 2300 points (a grand slam is worth 2000) ahead of #2 Clijsters and in much better form. So case closed, right? Not so fast. If you look at the “Race to the WTA Championships” her lead is not so secure. This calendar year Wozniacki has earned 5800 points. Kvitova, Sharapova, and Na Li have all earned about 5000.

You can reasonably expect the young #1 to continue to rack up the points at all non-slam events, but all three of her challengers probably have better odds at taking the US Open. If one of the three power players can grab the title in Flushing Meadows, the race could get very interesting. Of course, former champs Kim Clijsters and Serena Williams will probably have something to say about that. Both are low on match play but on their favorite surface and will have the benefit of a friendly crowd.

There’s Good, There’s Great, There’s Professional
On a personal note, this week I had the opportunity to participate in an adult tennis camp. The amount of improvement possible in just five days when you’re playing five or six hours a day is truly shocking, and highlights the difference between the casual player and the pro player. A few guys from the nearby Division I school came over to help one day and played against the campers. We all stood with mouths open as they hammered perfect ground strokes and magically directed the ball wherever they wanted it to go, all while laughing and talking casually. It took about ten minutes of us slamming balls in their direction before one even missed a shot.

The scary thing is not that they both seemed utterly perfect, but that they aren’t even starters on the team! Just so we can get our bearings: a starter on a Division I team can usually be fairly competitive in a qualifying draw of a Futures tournament. The main draws of Futures are almost always won by a seed, meaning a player with a world ranking (often in the 300-500 range). Those tournaments are small compared to the Challengers Circuit, which is where upcoming stars hone their game and lower ranked players spend much of their time (think of rankings in the 100-300 area). Only after all of that do you get to the ATP tour with the really big prize money and the really big names.

So if a couple of players I find to be jaw-droppingly talented are themselves at least four giant steps away from even being granted entry into a Grand Slam tournament, my odds of winning Wimbledon may not be quite as high as I'd hoped. I’ll keep practicing my autograph just in case.