Dinara Safina, Ana Ivanovic, and Jankovic all ascended to the top ranking far before their natural time and promptly went insane. At an “up and coming” ranking between 2nd and 5th, an early loss at a slam or a complete shellacking from a powerful veteran like Serena Williams, Venus Williams, or Kim Clijsters would not seem like something to worry about. With the spotlight on, a bad loss can be dissected for weeks, a foreshadowing of an imminent free-fall and a need to drastically change a game plan. The media stalked these young players like hyenas eyeing a sickly animal, cackling at every unforced error, drooling at press conferences wondering if they would be able to tear into a leg or a rib. This trend has continued for far too long. Injury-prone stars like Serena Williams and Clijsters deserve much of the blame. These two women have combined for more than half of the slams in the last three and a half years but only around 30% of the time at number one. A new, terrifying breed of monster has evolved in the form of Caroline Wozniacki. The sunny-dispositioned Dane has the amazing consistency to stay #1 on the strength of her non-slam events, but doesn’t seem to mind in the slightest that she hasn’t bagged a big trophy. She’s Brad Gilbert in a dress. Any worries she may have are quickly alleviated by a trip to the bank. Only after 55 weeks in the top spot (already ninth on the all time list) has she started to show chinks in her mental armor.

Regardless of whether the number one has a slam or not, the vacuum has officially been sealed. The top four women are all under the age of 25 and all possess the confidence to play well on the biggest stages and contend consistently for slam trophies over the next half a decade. Let’s take a look at who is most likely to grab the top spot in the first two months of 2012. You’ll be surprised at who’s missing from the top-three list.

All Signs Point To Yes – Petra Kvitova
When you subtract the points players will defend in January and February, the woman left on top is Kvitova. The charming Czech is known for her distinct version of “come on” that sounds uncannily like a dog’s bark. She’s also known for crushing her opponents on the way to a Wimbledon title, one of her six for the year. She will go into the Australian Open as a favorite. While a sophomore slump seems plausible, she’ll certainly spend a healthy chunk of time as the #1 before she has to defend her Wimbledon crown.

Outlook Good- Maria Sharapova and Victoria Azarenka
Sharapova and Azarenka are just barely behind Kvitova between now and Indian Wells. Each has had considerable success at the Australian Open before. However, there are significant drawbacks to both players. Sharapova has never been the same since a devastating shoulder injury. Her serve is no longer lethal and her famed mental strength can disappear at any time. Azarenka has aggressive court positioning and a great backhand, but her serve and forehand are less than deadly. The YEC final against Kvitova showed that she can be blown off the court by more powerful players. I don’t expect either player to win the Australian Open, but a runner up finish against a player outside the top five would be enough to reach the rankings peak.

Ask Again Later- Caroline Wozniacki and Samantha Stosur
Surprisingly, Wozniacki would be 600-900 points behind Azarenka, Sharapova, and Kvitova if you were to take the January/February points away from all of them. That’s the equivalent of a semifinal at the Australian or a title at a large tournament like Dubai. You can reasonably expect one of her three big competitors to make the semis down under, so she’ll need to finally get some slam hardware to keep her ranking. We will have to wait and see what her “mystery coach” can help her with in the off-season.

Stosur is in the same boat as Wozniacki. She has a chance to take the top spot, but only if she comes up big in Melbourne. The surface is not a bad one for her. The question is can she allow the home crowd to help her instead of hurt her.

Off-Season Hibernation
As the men limp towards their later finish line, then join the WTA training in their favorite tax-free countries, the time for off-season hibernation approaches. Yes, friends, it is that time when we relearn all our family members names and have no need to set the alarm for 4 am to watch a tournament halfway around the world. I encourage you to join me in eating a lot of candy and feeling the odd sensations of being in sunshine for a while before we go back to the addictive grind that is the life of a tennis fan. Enjoy it while it lasts!


Photo: Petra Kvitova and Victoria Azarenka from the 2011 Mutua Madrid Open